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Oracle and BEA: What happens next?

Oracle and BEA: What happens next?

Hostile takeover may be coming. Or nothing at all.

But if you don't hear anything within the next couple weeks, this deal might not happen at all, says James Kobielus, principal analyst for data management at Current Analysis.

"If anything's going to happen it's going to have to happen in the next week or two," Kobielus says. "If there's not a counterbid or a new bid from Oracle in the next couple of weeks, don't expect anything after that. It will either completely peter out in the next couple weeks or it'll just go on and on."

Many Oracle customers also use products from BEA, which due to WebLogic is the "worldwide leader in Java-based application servers," according to Kaplan of the Oracle users group.

Oracle has done a good job continuing to support products from companies it has acquired, but the effect of any acquisition on customers is always an unknown, he says.

"Oracle has done cooperative takeovers. Oracle has done hostile takeovers, PeopleSoft is a good example," Kaplan says. "In the end what we're concerned about is on the customer side. Is the technology a value to customers. Is any of the technology going to be thrown out, or [no longer supported]."

Oracle hasn't let its ambition to purchase BEA prevent it from making other acquisitions. Oracle announced Wednesday that it has agreed to buy Interlace Systems, which makes strategic operational planning software. Interlace would be Oracle's 10th acquisition of 2007.

An Oracle/BEA deal would practically be a match made in heaven, argues David O'Connell, a senior analyst at Nucleus Research. BEA has the technology to integrate a lot of the applications Oracle sells, he says. Oracle's offer of US$6.7 billion seems to be a fair one, he says.

"If Oracle uses BEA well, it can have a more seamlessly integrated product offering than its rivals and that would be a significant competitive advantage," O'Connell says. And on the other side, "there's lots of room for BEA to run and play and grow [under Oracle]."


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